In its World Economic Outlook October 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Zambia’s real GDP growth to accelerate to 5.6% in 2026 from 3.8% in 2025, with inflation easing to 8.0% from 13.9%.
The report, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices”, was released on 13 October 2026 during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
Global Economic Growth and Inflation in 2026 and 2027
Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, unchanged for 2026 and revised moderately upward for 2027 compared with the April 2026 World Economic Outlook.
According to the IMF, activity held up better than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the war in the Middle East and continuing trade tensions, supported by strong investment in artificial intelligence.
Advanced economies are projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while emerging market and developing economies slow to 3.7% in 2026 before recovering to 4.4% in 2027.
Global headline inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, before easing back to 4.1% in 2027, driven mainly by higher energy and food prices.
The IMF’s baseline assumes crude oil prices 41% higher and natural gas prices 48% higher in 2026 than in 2025, and it sees risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside.
Africa Economic Growth and Inflation in 2026 and 2027
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain stable at 4.5% in 2026 and 2027, although the IMF noted substantial divergence across countries depending on policy space, commodity exposure, climate shocks, and access to external financing.
Inflation in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to ease to 8.6% in 2026 and 2027 from 12.6% in 2025, with consumer prices in 2026 rising 15.6% in Nigeria and 4.4% in South Africa.
Among the continent’s largest economies, the IMF projects 2026 growth of 4.2% for Nigeria, 1.0% for South Africa, and 9.2% for Ethiopia, one of the fastest rates in Africa.
Middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, a group that includes Zambia, are projected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, compared with 6.4% for low-income countries and 4.2% for oil exporters.
In North Africa, which the IMF groups with the Middle East and Central Asia, growth in 2026 is projected at 5.1% for Egypt, 4.5% for Morocco, and 3.8% for Algeria.
The report noted that oil-importing economies without major natural resources are more affected by higher energy and food prices, while declining official development assistance is a headwind across the region.
Southern Africa Economic Growth and Inflation in 2026 and 2027
Among Zambia’s eight neighbours, the IMF projects 2026 growth of 6.0% for Tanzania, 5.2% for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 5.0% for Zimbabwe, 4.4% for Angola and Botswana, 2.6% for Malawi, 2.0% for Namibia, and 1.0% for Mozambique.
South Africa, the largest economy in Southern Africa, is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation at 4.4% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
Inflation among Zambia’s neighbours varies widely in 2026, from 4.0% in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, 4.1% in Namibia, and 4.3% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to 10.6% in Angola and 21.9% in Malawi.
Zimbabwe’s inflation is projected to fall to 4.0% in 2026 from 81.4% in 2025, the sharpest decline among Zambia’s neighbours in the IMF’s projections.
Zambia Economic Growth and Inflation in 2026 and 2027
Zambia’s real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 5.6% in 2026 from an estimated 3.8% in 2025, before easing to 4.9% in 2027, above the sub-Saharan Africa average of 4.5% in both years.
Zambia’s projected 2026 growth is the second highest among the country and its eight neighbours, behind only Tanzania at 6.0%, and above the 3.3% average for the region’s middle-income countries.
Consumer price inflation in Zambia is projected to ease to 8.0% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027 from 13.9% in 2025, slightly below the sub-Saharan Africa average of 8.6% in 2026.
Zambia’s current account is projected to swing to a surplus of 2.3% of GDP in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027, from a deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2025.
The projections follow the IMF’s sixth review of Zambia’s Extended Credit Facility in January 2026 and its May 2026 assessment of Zambia’s fiscal position.
